Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.