A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
